Brief summary: Since 2007, demand for electricity has been flat or in decline across the U.S., including Wisconsin and adjacent areas, even though economic activity and the number of electric customers has grown. Not only is there flat or declining demand for electricity in MG&E’s and WP&L’s service territories, the supply of electricity exceeds the demand in the Madison and Southwest Wisconsin electric power market.

No, demand for electricity in Wisconsin, Chicago and Northern Illinois, and Minnesota has been flat or declining over the past decade, even though economic activity and the number of customers has grown:

MGE’s and WP&L’s sales have decreased 2% and 2.3%, respectively, since 2011, even with a growing economy and an increase in the number of customers of 8% and 2.25%, respectively. (ELPC, p. 17)

Commonwealth Edison in Illinois has gained 100,000 new customers in the last three years but is losing 1% of electricity sales annually.

American Electric Power in Ohio forecasts a 1.6% annual decrease in demand for electricity over a period of 10 years.

Xcel-Northern States Power in Minnesota saw a 1.5% decline in electricity sales in the past year, even though the number of customers increased.

Moreover, MISO’s 2011 forecasts for electricity demand have not been borne out.  Over a ten-year period from 2012-2021, the difference in the MISO forecast of electricity demand growth and MGE’s and WP&L’s actual flat or declining demand is between 8% and 13%. (ELPC, p. 16) There is nothing to indicate that this demand trend for electricity will not continue into the foreseeable future.

To compensate for declining electricity sales and demand, WP&L has proposed increases in fixed customer charges of 56% in 2017 (from $7.67 to $12.00/month) and 50% in 2018 (from $12.00 to $18.00/month).

According to the US Department of energy, “slowing population growth, market saturation of major electricity-using appliances, improving efficiency of several equipment and appliance types in response to standards and technological change, and a shift in the economy toward less energy intensive industry are the reasons behind the levelling off of energy use.” http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=10491

It’s clear, therefore, that the Cardinal-Hickory Creek line does not meet the state of Wisconsin’s “need” requirement for building new transmission lines.

Not only is there flat or declining demand for electricity in MG&E’s and WP&L’s service territories, the supply of electricity exceeds the demand in the Madison and Southwest Wisconsin electric power market.  This is the result of three important factors:

1) improved energy efficiency of residential and business appliances and equipment,

2) the emergence of customer- and third party-owned generation (such as customer-owned solar and battery units and community solar projects),

3) the development of new power generation in the Wisconsin market. Examples of the latter include WP&L’s 2-megawatt solar energy generating facility being built in Beloit, two new wind farms being developed east of Platteville, and three more wind farms being planned for Rock, Monroe, and Green counties.  (ELPC, pp. 11,12)